July 20, 2006

The Putin's successor is.... Mr. Putin

Dmitry Medvedev

The closer the date of new elections in Russia the more rumors and news come down on us from all mass-media sources.
The latest 'official' version is as follows: Putin has cleaned up room for two of his 'minions': the minister of defence Mr. Ivanov and the prime vice-minister Mr. Dmitry Medevedev.

Depending on how these two guys will do in the next year and a half, Putin will appoint the 'lucky' one as a new Russian president. (It's not misspelling - 'elected' means 'appointed' in Russia - just doing that PR stuff we saw prior to Putin's elections: crying old women kissing newspapers with photos of Putin, the image of a good and smart guy who was to replace 'that drankard'... drafted soldiers who had to vote for the 'right person' otherwise.... etc. Frankly speaking, It's easy.... at least, not hard to get a 'needed' person elected).

Well, back to our characters. These two guys are realy working hard now. Medveded gives harsh speeches pointing out the most topical issues and problems (lack of new civil construction... corruption etc - well, pretty usual stuff).

Sergey Ivanov

The MoD is a bit shadowed now. Mainly because of new discovered problems with the army (harassment led to soldiers' death etc) and general state of homeland defence (When Korea fired a couple of bombs which landed close to Russian frontier - about 10 miles away from a city with dense population, Ivanov's reaction was "we track all the explosions therefore we have it under control" - such words can result in one's sceptical smile rather than in a state of calmness).

Well, let's look at the situation without 'glasses of egregious lie'. Despite cheerful reports of minister about the steady economical growth, the truth isn't so optimistic. Russia still relies on its natural resources (which are exhaustible to somebody's surprise). Industrial production is keeping going down. Not even to mention hi-tech and IT technologies - Russia's probably a century behind Europe.
Well, what we have is a semi-ruined state. Though no.... we'll have a semi-ruined state when Putin leaves and his successor (no matter, Medevedev or Ivanov) comes to power. Frankly, none of them looks like a harismatic leader (though, frankly, neither did Putin when he first sat on the throne - but we saw that later he proved the opposite). Ok, lets' walk more through the scenario. In such a possible situation when economy is down (mainly due to running out of oil, gas, aluminum etc), industry is down and Russia is in chaos it's time to look back and recall that at "Putin times" everything was ok (for some reason forgetting that that times oil prices were high and there was oil). It would be the right time to dethrone that weak successor who has proveŠ² his complete incapabilities in leading the state and ask Putin to come back to power.
Well.... let's not instantly judge about how probable this scenarion is. Just let us review other possible scenarios in next post so that you will probably come back to this first one. Especially, when there is no much time left to prove the theory. Just be patient and wait for a while...

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